Finnish 2009 NHL Entry Draft Review

The draft is over and done, it’s time for a wrap-up. Overall, my predictions were pretty accurate, if a bit over-optimistic.

So, here are the Finnish draftees of the class of 2009, in the order they were drafted. For each player, I’ve also included the prediction from my preview and its accuracy, plus a Hockey’s Future style prospect rating.

31. Mikko Koskinen, New York Islanders

I did, as many others, predict Koskinen being a relatively high pick, but I never imagined he’d be the first goalie picked in the whole draft, never mind being the first Finn drafted. The Islanders didn’t have any top goalie prospects going to the draft, but in addition to Koskinen, they drafted another overaged goalie (Anders Nilsson) this year.

Now that there’s a transfer agreement in place between the Finnish Ice Hockey Federation, SM-liiga and the NHL (more on that later), I would guess the Islanders would like to see Koskinen in the AHL already next year. In Espoo he would have to split duties with Iiro Tarkki, in Bridgeport he’d probably play as much as he wants.

• My prediction: Late 2nd rounder
• Accuracy: Minor underestimation
• Prospect rating: 7C

65. Joonas Nättinen, Montreal Canadiens

Solid pick by Les Habitants. They have no reason to rush Nättinen, he should play at least a couple of years in Finland, seeing a lot of icetime in SM-liiga and being a second-line center in the next two WJC’s.

He was the first Finn drafted by the Canadiens since 2003 when they drafted Oskari Korpikari. My prediction was a bit optimistic, but I was right about him being picked in the third round at latest.

• My prediction: 2nd rounder
• Accuracy: Minor overestimation
• Prospect rating: 7B

101. Toni Rajala, Edmonton Oilers

Another case where my worst case scenario was realized. Being something of an Oilers fan, I love this pick. Even with all the question marks, he never should’ve fallen that far. He has a huge upside, even if he is quite unlikely to ever reach it.

I’m just hoping that Rajala gets a fair chance with Ilves next year, he should be able to score around ten goals in SM-liiga. If he doesn’t get enough icetime, the Oilers should try to lure him to North America for 2010/11.

• My prediction: 2nd rounder
• Accuracy: Major overestimation
• Prospect rating: 8D

106. Sami Vatanen, Anaheim Ducks

Soild pick by the Ducks. Vatanen should have chance to grab a regular spot in JYP lineup next year and should see some powerplay action as well. There’s no need to rush him, but I’m not sure whether the drafts rights are again only valid for two years.

• My prediction: 2nd rounder
• Accuracy: Major overestimation
• Prospect rating: 7D

163. Jere Sallinen, Minnesota Wild

If the younger Sallinen recovers from his back injury, he could be a steal. If he doesn’t, it was a wasted pick by the Wild. Again, a case where patience is a virtue.

• My prediction: 6th rounder
• Accuracy: Spot on
• Prospect rating: 7D

171. Joni Ortio, Calgary Flames

A goalie from Turku, I guess Flames fans are excited. I don’t think he benefits much from another year in the juniors (he already had the second best save percentage of the U20 league last year), so if he can’t grab the backup spot in TPS SM-liiga lineup, maybe they should loan him to a Mestis club.

• My prediction: 5th rounder
• Accuracy: Minor overestimation
• Prospect rating: 7C

178. Rasmus Rissanen, Carolina Hurricanes

Rissanen is yet to see any SM-liiga action and only has half a season in the U20 league behind him, so he needs a lot of experience before he is able to challenge for an NHL job. Whether that experience should come from playing in Finland or North America is a whole another question. He’s the kind of player who could benefit from playing major junior hockey before graduating to the AHL and then, eventually, the NHL.

• My prediction: 5th rounder
• Accuracy: Minor overestimation
• Prospect rating: 6C

182. Erik Haula, Minnesota Wild

Some people thought Haula might in fact be the first Finn to be picked, but having seen both him, Nättinen and Rajala in U18 Worlds I thought he didn’t have the potential of those two. It seems NHL clubs agreed with me.

It is a lovely pick by the Wild, however. Haula already has played one season in Minnesota and he has signed a letter of intent to go to the University of Minnesota. He’s going to play in the USHL next year with the Omaha Lancers.

• My prediction: 4th rounder
• Accuracy: Major overestimation
• Prospect rating: 7C

208. Tommi Kivistö, Carolina Hurricanes

Kivistö has a lot of rebounding to do next year, but given his potential, I don’t think he should’ve slipped this far. He’s one of the prospects I’m going to follow closely in the future.

• My prediction: 4th rounder
• Accuracy: Major overestimation
• Prospect rating: 7D

211. Petteri Similä, Montreal Canadiens

Similä was the only draftee I didn’t list in my preview. He’s another huge goalie, so I guess the Habs are hoping that he would have a similar career path as Koskinen. Similä has a long way to go though, he was a backup in the juniors last year. Definately a “draft and follow” -type of pick.

• My prediction: None
• Accuracy: Major underestimation
• Prospect rating: -

There were also some prospects I expected to be picked who were passed over. Nico Manelius is, as far as I know, fully recovered from his knee injury. If he has a solid season, he’s pretty much guaranteed to be picked next year.

Kristian Näkyvä was another defenseman I envisioned would be a late round pick. If he makes the WJC squad and performs well, he might be picked next year. With the youth movement in Blues, he should have a good chance to see regular shift in SM-liiga, as well.

In retrospect, I have to admit I was stretching it with Iiro Pakarinen and Antti Raanta. They’ll have to prove themselves in SM-liiga before they are considered by NHL clubs. Pakarinen might have a chance of making the WJC squad as well.