Finnish 2009 NHL Entry Draft Preview
The first round of the 2009 NHL Entry Draft is scheduled for this evening, so it is about time I get my draft preview out. (Not that I expect to hear any Finnish names except “Kekäläinen” and “Pääjärvi” on Friday…)
So far I’ve only seen one preview focusing on Finnish prospects, so I guess mine will be the second. (In my opinion, HF did a poor job ranking the Finns this year, but their profiles are pretty good.)
I decided not to rank the prospects, but instead just list the prospective draftees alphabetically with short descriptions of their strengths and weaknesses and a prediction of the range where they’ll be picked. I, frankly, don’t think anyone really cares whether I see Rajala or Nättinen to be the first Finn to be selected.
So, here are the 25 draft eligible Finns I think have any chance to be drafted on Saturday.
The son of former Caps defenseman Timo Blomqvist was eligible last year, but after a terrific year in the juniors, he actually might have a chance of getting drafted this time around. He’s a sniper who needs more strength to be able to score on professional level as well.
- Best case scenario: 4th rounder
- Realistic scenario: not drafted
The smallish rearguard has developed in the shadow of Kivistö and Manelius, but at this point, he might actually be a better player than either of them. He’s not too flashy, but has nice puck skills and plays a steady defensive game as well. Needs more muscle.
- BCS: 6th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
He’ll probably be the first Finn ever to be drafted out of US High School. He’s just 5’11″, but plays much bigger. A good playmaker with nice wrist shot as well. He has signed a letter of intent with the University of Minnesota for the 2010/11 season, so his draft rights could be retained for as long as five years.
- BCS: 2nd rounder
- RS: 4th rounder
- Worst Case Scenario: 6th rounder
The hard-working defensive forward was a favorite of assistant coach Ismo Lehkonen which secured him the fourth line center duties in the SM-liiga lineup of Jokerit. He got selected to Team Finland for the World Juniors as well, but everything went downhill from there. He made a couple of costly mistakes early in the tournament and saw his icetime shrink. When he got back to Finland, he no longer saw any SM-liiga action and couldn’t create much offense in the juniors either.
Lehkonen compared Helenius to Riku Hahl, which might be an accurate stylistic comparison, but I just don’t see Helenius having the kind of upside Hahl proved to have. Jokerit only has two veteran centers signed for next year, so maybe he is worth a gamble anyway. He’ll never be more than a shutdown/PK specialist though.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Small, speedy winger with nice hands and a nose for the net. He was passed over last year and had an injury-ridden season, so I don’t expect to see him picked this year, either.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
HF ranked him the fifth best draft-eligible player from Finland (not counting Haula or Kivistö), but I can’t agree with that assesment. He has a lot of skill, but that’s not enough to balance his lack of focus, vision and sense. He makes so many stupid, selfish and arrogant plays that it seems he simply doesn’t really care about the team. His defensive play is also sub-par, which is kind of worrying for a defenseman.
- BCS: 5th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
The big stay-at-home defenseman didn’t have the best of WJC’s, but he did play another complete season in SM-liiga. He doesn’t have any kind of offensive upside, but he skates pretty well for a guy his size.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Kivistö entered the season as the top-ranked Finnish defenseman, but after a disappointing WJC, latter half of the WHL season and U18 World Championships, a lot clubs probably are wary of drafting him. He’s a nice two-way defenseman though and I’m pretty sure he will be drafted anyway.
- BCS: 2nd rounder
- RS: 4th rounder
In hindsight, it is easy to say that it would’ve made sense to take a gamble with Koskinen last year. After all, he did have a shutout in his only SM-liiga start. This year, he did exactly what he said he’d do: outplayed Bernd Brückler and became the starter in Espoo.
He does have some flaws in his game still, but with the recent success of Pekka Rinne and the relatively low level of goaltending prospects this year, I think it is safe to say that Koskinen will be drafted quite early.
- BCS: Late 1st rounder
- RS: Late 2nd rounder
- WCS: 6th rounder
Last fall I was really impressed with the authority and calmness Manelius directed the defense of U18 Team Finland with. His offensive upside is rather limited, but as a stay-at-home type he should have a great future.
The season-ending knee injury in November meant that he missed the WJC (he was in consideration, despite being two years underaged) and the U18 Worlds. A serious knee injury suffered as a 17-year-old could have some kind of impact on his whole career.
- BCS: 3rd rounder
- RS: 6th rounder
Big kid, has a mean streak, ready to drop the gloves. Average puck skills, skating. Didn’t have the best of WJC’s, but graduated to HIFK’s SM-liiga lineup.
- BCS: 6th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Another smallish, skilled Blues defenseman. Late ’90 birthdate, so he’s eligible for the first time, but didn’t get much international exposure this year. Nice year in the U20 league, even saw some SM-liiga action and did quite well.
- BCS: 4th rounder
- RS: 7th rounder
If I had to bet on one prospect on this list to play at least a hundred games in the NHL, Nättinen would be the guy. He has all the tools to be a reliable two-way center, the question is if he has the offensive upside to be more than that.
- BCS: Late 1st rounder
- RS: 2nd rounder
- WCS: 3rd rounder
I don’t think I’ve ever seen him play, so there’s not much to say. He’s a big defenseman who put up respectable number in the juniors this year. He should have a good chance to make the WJC squad next year.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
A technically sound goalie, who still needs to work on improving his physique while honing his skills at the same time. Working under Urpo Ylönen probably helps. He was the starter for Team Finland in the U18 Worlds and had good numbers in U20 SM-liiga.
- BCS: 3rd rounder
- RS: 5th rounder
A big, bruising winger from KalPa, has a nose for the net and adequate puck skills as well. Could he be this year’s Teemu Hartikainen?
- BCS: 4th rounder
- RS: 6th rounder
I’ve only seen him play four minutes, ever, so again, I don’t have much to say. He has put up nice numbers in the juniors though, and I like numbers.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
I remember when he was the top scorer of Jokerit U16 team which didn’t lose any games that year. He was a great playmaker on that level, but after that he’s been converted more to a two-way role in the U20 league. He played his first minutes in SM-liiga this year and even had a bout with Dan Hacker. He was selected as a backup reserve for the WJC this year, so there’s a good chance he’ll make the team for real next year.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Again a kid I haven’t seen much, but his numbers in the U20 league were phenomenal. The problem is that he probably won’t see much SM-liiga action in Lukko because Petri Vehanen tends to play over fifty games a year, so there’s not much left for the backup.
- BCS: 4th rounder
- RS: 7th rounder
Rajala has been touted as the “next Finnish Flash” for years, but he has had some problems living up to the hype. His numbers in juniors were far from expected this year and he didn’t see a lot of action in SM-liiga, mostly due to the hesitancy of Ilves head coach Sakari Pietilä to use youngsters.
He did a good WJC though and I don’t think enough emphasis has been put on his outstanding U18 Worlds. He broke the scoring record of the tournament (earlier held by one Alexander Ovechkin…) by scoring 19 points in 6 games. Let me repeat: nineteen points in six games. There’s no doubt he benefited from playing with Mikael Granlund and Teemu ⅠⅠ (Pulkkinen) (guess who’s Teemu Ⅰ), but I don’t think there are too many players in this draft who have better offensive skills than he does.
The question in my mind is whether he’ll be able to add enough bulk to his body to ever be able to play in the NHL. He tends to avoid contact and there’s not much room for perimeter players in today’s game. Having said that, I have no doubt he would be a late first round pick in any normal year. This time the quality is so high and the pool so deep, I think he might slip to the second round.
- BCS: 1st rounder
- RS: 2nd rounder
- WCS: 4th rounder
The younger brother of Tuukka Rask was the highest ranked Finnish skater by NHL Central Scouting last year but he wasn’t drafted. I don’t think his rather average WJC made his chances of being picked this year any better. He’s a smallish, skilled forward who simply doesn’t have any significant differentiating qualities.
- BCS: 6th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Rissanen probably benefited from Manelius being hurt, playing a big role in the bronze medal winning U18 team. He’s a big, stay-at-home defenseman who plays with a lot of emotion.
- BCS: 3rd rounder
- RS: 5th rounder
Another top prospect who’s season ended prematurely with an injury. He only played nine games before back problems ruined his draft year.
He did have an excellent season in the juniors the year before and even became the first player born in the 90′s to see SM-liiga action, so the potential is there. The question is whether he can overcome the problems and realize that potential.
- BCS: 3rd rounder
- RS: 6th rounder
Older brother of Jere. He’s already a regular with Blues in SM-liiga and had an ok WJC, so he definately has a chance of being drafted this time around. He has the upside of a second line center, but the fact he’s been used in a more two-way role in Blues makes me think he could make it as a third liner as well, which is a good thing.
- BCS: 6th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Another goalie prospect I know next to nothing about. Respectable numbers in juniors, excellent in the playoffs, backup to Ortio in U18 Worlds.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Had a coming out party in the U18 Worlds where he was easily the top d-man of Team Finland. There has been a lot of talk about Ryan Ellis leading up to this year’s draft and Vatanen is a similar case. He’s small, but smart, skilled and an excellent skater. Reminds me a lot of Petteri Nummelin, which is both a good and a bad thing.
- BCS: Late 1st rounder
- RS: 2nd rounder
- WCS: 5th rounder
The prototypical power forward has been passed over twice by all the teams, so I don’t think he’ll be drafted this time, either. He did see a bit of SM-liiga action this year and didn’t look out of place at all. In the juniors he used his size and strength, but could not produce that much better results than last year.
- BCS: 7th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
I only saw him play once this year, but that game was an eye-opener for me. He played a smallish role on the blueline of Lukko in SM-liiga, but laid out a couple of monster hits and gave good, tape-to-tape opening passes. I still don’t understand why he wasn’t in the WJC squad.
Vidgren injured his thigh after falling on his leg in a fight with Vladimir Ryzhkov in March. He’s still recovering, which might scare away prospective NHL employers.
- BCS: 5th rounder
- RS: Not drafted
Other notables: Joni Karjalainen, Mikael Aaltonen, Ville Hyvärinen, Valtteri Virkkunen, Jere Laaksonen, Joonas Hurri, …
To summarize the draft from a Finnish point of view: a good year, kind of overshadowed by the fact that it is a great year for the Swedes and a very deep draft class overall. No real gems, Rajala has a lot of question marks surrounding him and Nättinen’s offensive upside is questionable as well.
Hi Eetu,
Appreciated reading both your NHL draft previews and reviews. In fact, I wrote the HF articles to which you referred and appreciate the comments you had to make. Guess I was way off on Jyrkkio – my including him had more to do with what I perceived as talent and potential, and a general feeling that the younger group were not yet developed enough to be drafted – mainly since there were so few Finns taken in the 2007 and 2008 drafts.
I would also be interested in your opinion of Lauri Karmeniemi. In a number of the inquiries I received after posting my article, people felt that his exclusion was the biggest shortcoming of my list.
As for Tomi Pekkala – that was another “flaw” you and I have in common – with all other things considered, I too like numbers.
I’d also be interested to hear your opinions on the large number of Finnish players drafted in the CHL’s Import draft (I believe eleven) and how many of them you feel will be going to play there.
Kittos!
I promised myself that I wouldn’t write any hockey related stuff during the month of July, but as I’m already doing it in my mind, I might as well write a review of the CHL import draft, too. Deadline tomorrow evening. (I like setting myself public deadlines.)
Based on the U18 Worlds, Kärmeniemi has a lot to learn. Currently he’s an undersized, defensively challenged defenseman with above average puck skills. I don’t think he was even close to being drafted.
As I said in my preview, I haven’t really scouted Pekkala at all and I didn’t actually expect him to be drafted. (But I do like numbers, even if they are inflated by playing with a granlund. I’ve been thinking about calculating league equivalencies for the Finnish leagues…)